JPMorgan upgrades Vietnam's stock rating, forecasts VN-Index to reach 1,500

JPMorgan has upgraded Vietnam stocks to “overweight” in its portfolio, CNBC reported. The move comes after Vietnam became the first Southeast Asian country to sign a tariff agreement with the US with a 20% tax rate.

“At the same time, combined with other factors such as strong economic growth (GDP in the second quarter of 2025 reaching nearly 8%) has prompted us to upgrade our rating of the Vietnamese market in the ASEAN region. The new target is that the VN-Index on the base/optimistic scenario will reach 1,500/1,600 points by the end of this year,” the JPMorgan analysis team assessed.

JPMorgan's previous forecast for the VN-Index was around 1,300 points in the base scenario and 1,450 points in the optimistic scenario, showing the world's leading bank's more positive assessment of the Vietnamese stock market in the current context.

JPMorgan's ASEAN Equity Strategy report pointed out that, in addition to the reason for the tariff agreement, the promotion of fiscal policy that helps Vietnam's GDP growth accelerate significantly despite external risks is also a factor that makes JPMorgan evaluate positively.

“This is a key differentiator for Vietnam in ASEAN, as most other countries have limited fiscal space to support growth,” JPMorgan’s report emphasized. The assessment is also based on other factors such as a weak US dollar and a low foreign investment position, which can make foreign investors return to the Vietnamese market more actively.

In addition, JPMorgan also believes that applying non-prefunding in November 2024 and upgrading the trading system will increase the possibility of Vietnam being upgraded to an emerging market by FTSE in the September 2025 review.

VN-Index performance

In the stock market, investors also responded positively to the new information about the tariff agreement between the two countries. As of the end of the session on July 10, the VN-Index had its 5th consecutive session of increase with 4 sessions of double-digit increase. At the end of the session on July 10, the VN-Index reached 1,445.64 points, up more than 60 points in 5 sessions.

On the foreign investors' side, the signal has reversed when foreign investors have been net buyers for 7 consecutive sessions on HoSE with 6 net buying sessions of over a trillion VND.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/jpmorgan-nang-danh-gia-chung-khoan-viet-nam-du-bao-vn-index-dat-1500---1600-diem-d328169.html