The Christian Science newspaper on May 3 quoted experts as saying that the impact of the new tariff policy, including rising prices, scarce goods and even empty shelves, could be evident in the US in the coming weeks or months.

Professor Jason Miller, a supply chain expert at Michigan State University, told Christian Science that for items such as household goods, toys, or kitchen appliances, the US currently has almost no alternatives other than Chinese goods.

Many American businesses rushed to stock up on imported goods in March, while American consumers rushed to shop before the tax took effect.

“It feels like every income group is feeling more insecure than ever,” ING Group international economist James Knightley told Christian Science .

Data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 30 showed that the wave of imports before the tariff was imposed caused the US economy to decline in the first quarter of 2025.

However, recently many US importers have canceled or delayed orders from China, leading to a significant decrease in the amount of goods arriving at US ports.

According to Mr. Miller, the impact of tariffs in the US is not yet clear due to remaining inventory, but from June to July, Chinese products may be scarce or have sharp price increases.

The Christian Science Journal compares the impact of tariffs to a slow-moving wave, and when it hits, American consumers will feel the impact.

"Voluntary Recession"

The Christian Science newspaper said that American experts are predicting a worse scenario, with the possibility of a mass recession in the retail sector, especially small businesses.

If the cancellations continue, imports from China will stop arriving at U.S. ports by mid-May, according to a forecast from investment management firm Apollo Global Management. This will lead to layoffs in the logistics and transportation sectors by early June.

For small businesses in the United States, the summer of 2025 could be the start of mass bankruptcies. Apollo calls it a “voluntary business restructuring recession.”

Small businesses like Rasta Imposta, which designs Halloween costumes, say they are struggling with their goods “stuck” because the current tariffs are so high.

Resta Imposta owner Robert Berman told Christian Science that they tried to find alternative sources of production in India and Mexico but to no avail.

The same situation is happening in many other industries such as toys, household goods, imported wine - American products that depend heavily on supply from China.

Action needed to save small businesses

While trade talks between the US and several other countries are underway, there is no clear sign yet that Washington and Beijing have begun negotiations.

The Christian Science News reported that if negotiations do take place, the process will be extremely difficult due to geopolitical tensions overlapping purely commercial issues.

The US Chamber of Commerce (USCC) on April 30 sent a letter to the US Government requesting tax relief for small businesses. In the letter, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and USCC Executive Director Suzanne Clark emphasized the need for "urgent action to save small businesses in the US and avoid a recession".

According to Christian Science , the situation could be particularly dire during the holiday shopping season, especially Halloween and Christmas, which are traditionally dependent on supplies from China with months-long production and shipping times.

“If Trump doesn’t act quickly, the goods will be too late,” Robert Berman told Christian Science. He also said that if he doesn’t get the goods from China in time, his company will have to close and lay off all its employees.