Deputy General Director of Vietnam Construction Securities Joint Stock Company Do Bao Ngoc predicted that after the holiday, market developments will depend heavily on information about tariffs between the United States and Vietnam.

- How do you evaluate the stock market from the beginning of 2025 until now, especially in April?

- The market experienced a positive first quarter of 2025 with the VN-Index increasing by more than 3% compared to the end of 2024, supported by relatively high economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025; the growth target for 2025 is high, over 8%, policies to support the economy, promote growth, in which the credit target increases by over 16%... These things have helped investors have an optimistic view of the market.

However, in April, the stock market fell sharply. At the end of the trading session on April 29, the VN-Index fell more than 6% compared to the end of March 2025. After the United States announced tariffs on many countries, the market fell sharply. From 1,340 points, the VN-Index dropped to 1,070 points at one point, then recovered and became more balanced at the end of April. It can be said that the market's performance mainly reflected negative information related to tariffs.

- Last week, banking and securities stocks experienced negative developments, although they improved this week. Meanwhile, the real estate group, especially VIC and VHM stocks, performed very positively. Why, sir?

- In the face of unexpected developments regarding the US announcement of tariffs, investors are more cautious. If the tariffs are imposed at the high level as announced, it will affect the business prospects of many enterprises and the growth prospects of the economy. Therefore, many investors are concerned that the banking sector may increase bad debt. Regarding the developments of the stock market, when investors are more cautious, market liquidity also decreases. Therefore, many investors are concerned that in the condition of an inactive stock market and reduced liquidity, the prospects of the securities industry will also be limited. In addition, regarding the information related to the market upgrade announced at the end of March, the FTSE organization assessed that Vietnam has not had many major changes to be able to be officially upgraded in this assessment period. Investors have more reasons to be cautious with securities stocks.

Meanwhile, the Vin group of stocks has recently received a lot of positive information about business results, both from Vingroup Corporation - a joint stock company (code VIC) and Vinhomes Joint Stock Company (code VHM), Vinfast's business situation has also improved. Not to mention, Vingroup's orientation in the coming time is to participate in many large projects, promising to bring higher revenue and profit in the future. All of these factors support the revenue and profit of this group, so the Vin group of stocks attracts the attention of cash flow.

- Also last week, foreign investors returned to net buying after 11 weeks of net selling. What factors determined this?

- Before last week, foreign investors were net sellers. However, in the past week, this group has started to reduce transactions, both in terms of buying and selling, and has slightly returned to net buying, about 466 billion VND. Compared to the previous net selling level, the net buying level of foreign investors last week is not worth much. This is just a time when they temporarily stop after a period of continuous net selling. In addition, it is possible that the market has dropped sharply to a relatively suitable valuation level, so foreign investors are not interested in selling stocks at low prices. The net buying above is not enough to confirm that foreign investors will return to net buying because the USD/VND exchange rate has continued to increase recently.

- How do you predict the market will perform after the long holiday?

- Investors' holiday mentality has been shown in the last 2-3 trading sessions as stock prices and VN-Index fluctuated within a narrow range, liquidity decreased sharply.

The new information technology system (KRX) officially launched on May 5 is one of the factors supporting the market. When put into operation, the stable operation of the system will be a positive factor for the market to move towards the future, where new products can be applied to support investors with more options in the investment process as well as risk management. This is also one of the conditions for the Vietnamese stock market to be more complete in terms of technology and infrastructure in order to fully meet the upgrading conditions of FTSE and MSCI organizations. This is also a factor that the market has been waiting for for many years. However, the market's prospects are currently covered by factors related to trade and tariffs.

After the holiday, market developments will depend largely on information factors. Recently, in addition to information from the KRX system, many other positive information such as positive business results in the first quarter of 2025; many businesses successfully held annual shareholder meetings, and plans to pay dividends in both stocks and cash at high rates have supported the market. After the holiday, information about trade and negotiations between countries and the United States will be the main information affecting investor sentiment in the period after the holiday.

It is likely that investors will remain cautious, waiting for information on trade negotiations between Vietnam and the United States as well as new developments on the possibility of trade negotiations between the United States and China. It is likely that the VN-Index will fluctuate in a narrow range, fluctuating between 1,220-1,250 points before receiving positive or negative information on trade negotiations. If the information is positive, the VN-Index may rise above this range. However, if the information is not positive and investors continue to be pessimistic, the market may correct below the 1,220-1,250 point range to re-test the supply-demand correlation. Given the current situation, it seems that it will take more time for the parties to actually reach an agreement on trade issues.

Thank you very much!

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-sau-ky-nghi-le-30-4-va-1-5-phu-thuoc-nhieu-vao-dam-phan-thue-quan-viet-nam-hoa-ky-701074.html