The world has just entered 2023 with many low notes when facing many difficulties, most economies of countries have lower growth rates than expected. In the context of the general difficulties of the global economy, although Vietnam's economy still faces many challenges, with the participation of the entire political system, the Government, the Prime Minister has been proactive, flexible, resolute, closely directing ministries, branches, localities together with the solidarity, trust, support of the people and the business community to overcome difficulties, promote growth, maintain macroeconomic stability, thanks to which our country's economy still achieved positive results and became a bright spot in the global economic picture.

The Covid-19 pandemic has just ended, but many other pressing issues have emerged, causing the world economy to face more challenges than expected. The Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts are extremely tense and complicated, along with natural disasters, competition and armed conflicts, which are some of the direct causes of slow global economic growth. In addition, inflation remains high; world public debt has increased to a record of 92,000 billion USD; financial, currency and real estate markets are fraught with many risks. Import and export activities have narrowed, food security is complicated... At the end of 2023, international organizations have adjusted their global economic growth forecasts compared to previous forecasts in different directions, but most of the forecasts are lower than the growth rate in 2022.

Domestically, due to the adverse impact of the world situation along with the complicated developments of natural disasters and the prolonged consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, Vietnam is facing many difficulties and major challenges. Geopolitical instability, the world economy facing difficulties, weak aggregate demand recovery, high inflation in many countries, and unstable supply chains have affected the domestic economy. Although industrial production has changed positively, it is still slow and has not created a strong acceleration compared to the same period in 2022, mainly due to a decrease in orders, high input costs, and lack of export markets, which have affected many industrial production sectors, especially the processing and manufacturing industry. Import and export activities have recovered slowly due to decreased world demand, real estate continues to be gloomy, and cash flow is limited, especially in the context of high pressure on corporate bond maturity and repayment in 2023. Besides, attracting foreign investment in 2023 has not been effective as investors have not expanded their investment scale in projects operating in Vietnam due to common difficulties of the world economy and the business community.

In that context, implementing the Resolution of the 13th National Party Congress, with the joint efforts of the whole society, the drastic participation of the entire political system and the business community, the Vietnamese economy in 2023 showed a slight recovery in growth over the quarters. Notably, during the half-term of the 13th National Party Congress, the task of economic recovery and development was one of the important highlights of the Party. Typically, the Politburo issued Conclusion No. 07 dated June 1, 2021 on a number of key tasks on preventing and fighting the Covid-19 pandemic and socio-economic development; Conclusion No. 24 dated December 30, 2021 on the Socio-Economic Recovery and Development Program... On that basis, the National Assembly and the Government concretized it into Resolutions, programs, and plans for economic recovery and development. Thanks to that, despite many difficulties, our country's economy still achieved positive results and is considered a bright spot in the "gray picture" of the global economy.

Thanks to the Party's close and timely leadership and direction and the Government's drastic management, the annual GDP growth reached 5.05%, although lower than the set target (about 6.5%), it was still among the highest in the region and the world. All three regions developed well; agriculture grew at the highest rate in over 10 years; industry recovered well; services developed vigorously, tourism recovered, welcoming 12.6 million international visitors - far exceeding the target of 8 million visitors; state budget revenue could reach, even exceed the set target while implementing many policies to exempt and extend payment deadlines for many types of taxes, fees, charges and land use fees. Inflation was at 3.8%. The consumer price index is estimated to increase by 3.5% (much lower than the target of about 4.5%). Total social investment capital increased by 5.9% over the same period last year; Total import-export turnover reached more than 700 billion USD, of which the trade surplus for the whole year was nearly 26 billion USD, putting our country in the group of 20 leading economies in international trade.

Disbursement of public investment capital in 12 months is estimated to reach 73.5% of the 2023 plan, contributing to increasing the total length of highways put into operation to more than 1,900km. 2023 is considered a successful year in attracting FDI capital, with a record registered capital of 36.6 billion USD, disbursed capital of more than 23 billion USD and a series of high-quality projects such as projects to produce phones, electronic components, chip production, etc. Foreign investment capital reached nearly 417 million USD. The currency and foreign exchange markets are basically stable, interest rates have decreased. Food security and energy security are guaranteed. The work of building and perfecting institutions, mechanisms, policies, and removing difficulties for production and business has been promoted. The agricultural economic sector, as an advantage and pillar of the economy, has developed stably, increasing by 3.38%; rice exports are estimated at 8 million tons (about 4.5 billion USD).

Speaking at the national online conference summarizing the work in 2023 and deploying tasks in 2024, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh was optimistic that the socio-economic situation in 2023 would continue to recover positively, with each month being better than the previous month and each quarter being higher than the previous quarter; The Prime Minister emphasized that Vietnam has basically achieved the set general goals of persistently stabilizing the macro-economy, controlling inflation, promoting growth, ensuring major balances of the economy; social security and people's lives have been improved; anti-corruption and negativity have been promoted; national defense and security have been consolidated and enhanced; foreign affairs and international integration have achieved comprehensive and outstanding results; the prestige and position of the country and the people's trust in the Party and State have been enhanced.

From the practical work of leadership, management and direction, the Prime Minister affirmed that the results achieved were thanks to the close and timely direction of the Central Committee, directly and regularly by the Politburo and the Secretariat, headed by General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong; the efforts of the entire political system, the close, smooth and effective coordination of the National Assembly; the drastic, timely and effective direction of the Government, all levels, sectors and localities; the support and active participation of the People and the business community; and the cooperation and assistance of international friends.

Thus, Vietnam's economy in the last months of 2023 has many positive signs, which will create momentum for 2024 - a breakthrough year to complete the 5-year economic development plan 2021-2025. In the context of the world still having many difficulties and uncertainties as today, Vietnam still has positive bright spots. Among them, Vietnam's economy is optimistically expected by international financial institutions and economic experts to have a higher growth rate in 2024 than in 2023. According to the World Bank (WB), the global recession is a big shock to many economies with large openness like Vietnam, however, Vietnam's economy still maintains its growth rate. According to the WB, Vietnam's economy will grow by 4.7% in 2023 and is forecast to grow by 5.5% in 2024 and 6% in 2025, with signs of economic recovery becoming clearer towards the end of the year.

Meanwhile, in the global research report on Vietnam “Vietnam - Stronger but not easier” just released at the beginning of the year, Standard Chartered Bank Vietnam forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth to reach 6.7% in 2024, of which it is forecast to reach 6.2% in the first half of the year and 6.9% in the second half of the year. This growth rate is much higher than the estimated growth of 5.05% in 2023.

The latest survey by Bloomberg released on January 8 shows that Vietnam's economy is likely to grow 6.3% in the first quarter of 2024 and 6.5% in the second quarter of 2024. Vietnam's GDP growth is forecast by the world's leading economic news agency to reach 6% in 2024 and 6.4% in 2025.

For its part, the UK's CEBR Consulting Center assessed that Vietnam is one of two Southeast Asian economies (along with the Philippines) with the potential to "leap forward" in the World Economic Union rankings from now until 2038. CEBR said that Vietnam is currently the 34th largest economy in the world and will rapidly increase to 24th place in 2033, before becoming the 21st economy in the world in 2038. According to CEBR, Vietnam is facing a very positive prospect for the next 15 years. With its existing population advantage, Vietnam is likely to achieve its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045. With a large and relatively young population, Vietnam has the opportunity to surpass most of the current top countries in ASEAN in terms of economy such as Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, to rise to second place in the region by 2038, just behind Indonesia among the Top 25 economies in the world.

Although Vietnam's economy is considered a bright spot in the global economic picture in 2023 and many forecasts are optimistic this year. However, it is forecasted that in 2024, Vietnam's economy will continue to face many difficulties and challenges, from both the unpredictable fluctuations in the world and regional situations and the limitations and difficulties within the economy. However, with the spirit of determination to overcome difficulties, with the common efforts of the whole society, the drastic participation of the entire political system and the business community, our country's economy will continue to rise, creating momentum and strength, creating confidence to strive to complete the planning goals of the 2021-2025 period./.