Grain trade flows remain volatile

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) expects global cereal production to reach an all-time high of 2,854 million tonnes in 2024. However, despite the increased supply, global stocks are expected to remain tight and trade flows face uncertainty, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).

Concerns in Southern Africa

The increase in forecasts is due to better maize harvest prospects in Argentina and Brazil as well as Türkiye and Ukraine, which will offset lower production prospects in Indonesia, Pakistan and several countries in southern Africa, according to the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.

Wheat production is also forecast to rise as better harvest prospects in Asia, particularly Pakistan, outweigh an expected reduction in Russia due to severe weather in major wheat-producing regions early in the season. Global rice production is expected to reach a record 535.1 million tonnes.

Total world cereal utilization in 2024/25 is forecast to increase to 2,856 million tonnes, up 0.5% from the previous season, led by rice and coarse grains. World cereal stocks are forecast to increase by 1.3% in 2025, leaving the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2024/25 virtually unchanged at 30.8%.

Conflict is causing severe food insecurity, the report says, particularly in Yemen, as well as the Gaza Strip and Sudan, where populations are at risk of food shortages and famine. Of particular concern is that total annual cereal production in southern Africa is expected to decline by nearly 20 percent by 2024 due to widespread drought. Import requirements for the region are projected to be more than double the average of the past five years, assuming normal consumption levels are maintained.

Wheat recovery

Global cereal production is expected to hit a record high, driven largely by a strong recovery in wheat production, according to the latest report from the International Grains Council (IGC). Despite the increase in supplies, global ending stocks are expected to remain tight, with the IGC forecasting total stocks at 591 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from its previous estimate but still the lowest in a decade.

Looking ahead to 2024-25, the IGC forecasts a modest 1% increase in global cereal production in 2024-25, driven by improved barley, sorghum and oat production. However, global ending stocks are expected to decline for the third consecutive season, reaching 582 million tonnes, down 2% year-on-year.

“The larger production will support a modest increase in total supplies. Although only a relatively small increase in utilization is expected, consumption growth will push closing stocks lower for the third consecutive season, down 2% year-on-year to 582 million tonnes,” the IGC’s latest report said. Global trade in cereals is expected to fall to 416 million tonnes, its lowest in five years, due to lower global demand for wheat and corn imports.

Synthesized HAPPY CHI