Safety threshold 1.5 degrees Celsius

Since the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015, the important goal of the COP28 conference as well as the world has been determined to restrain global warming at 1.5⁰C, this number is difficult to achieve today, but it is very important.

In other words, the goal of the agreement is to reduce emissions to prevent global warming of the planet at 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, it is considered a revolution in the world.

Scientists say the 1.5C threshold for the Earth is seen as a safety line, and sticking to it will give humans a chance to act before climate impacts become extreme due to global warming.

Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, described the 1.5C limit as “a level that we really need to try and stay as far away from as possible”.

But to maintain that limit, the United Nations says current global emissions need to be halved by 2030, a deadline that is less than seven years away.

How close is Earth to 1.5 degrees Celsius?

According to scientists' calculations, global temperatures have risen by an average of 0.08 degrees Celsius per decade since 1880. That rate began accelerating in 1981 and has more than doubled since then.

The ten hottest years on record have all occurred since 2010. Climate scientists now predict that 2023 will be the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures 1.43 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

On November 20, the United Nations warned that the Earth is being pushed onto a catastrophic warming trajectory of up to 2.9 degrees Celsius this century, due to the lack of drastic action by countries.

In the days before COP28, the average temperature increased by 2 degrees Celsius, and Turkmenistan even recorded a record temperature increase of 10 degrees Celsius.

What happens if the Earth exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius?

A report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that global temperatures will hit a new high in the next five years. Meanwhile, the United Nations says that if the planet passes the 1.5C threshold, global warming will accelerate.

Sergey Paltsev, associate director of MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, said that the Earth crossing the 1.5C threshold does not mean that disaster will strike humanity immediately. “Science has never said that the day the temperature exceeds 1.51C is the end of the world,” he explained.

Instead, people will have to endure more severe natural disasters such as storms, heat waves, and droughts. This is a factor that has a profound impact on life.

Specifically, storms and floods threaten people's housing and government infrastructure, while droughts restrict drinking water supplies and food production, causing prices to skyrocket. Heat waves pose a health risk, especially to the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions and weakened immune systems.

Is the impact the same everywhere?

The answer is no. For example, developing countries contribute only a small fraction of global emissions, yet they are most vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. For example, Pakistan emits less than 1% of the world’s carbon emissions, yet it is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change.

Muhammad Mumtaz, assistant professor at Fatima Jinnah University for Women in Pakistan, said one-third of the country's urban population is feeling the intense heat.

“Different cities across Pakistan have recorded temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius, with some cities reaching as high as 51 degrees Celsius. This is very worrying,” Mr. Mumtaz shared.

Archibong Akpan, a climate policy expert in Nigeria at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), pointed to heatwaves and cyclones, along with high levels of poverty, as evidence that global warming is having a huge impact on Africa's food production.

“Climate change is already affecting food supplies and crops,” he said, adding that increasing existing impacts “will be devastating to so many livelihoods.”

How to adapt?

While the rate of global warming could be slowed by stopping the burning of fossil fuels, scientists say that even if all human emissions disappeared immediately, Earth's temperatures would continue to rise for decades due to past impacts. That means climate change would continue to affect future generations.

Therefore, it is important to adapt to changes in weather while still meeting basic needs.

Many countries, regions and cities have been successfully researching climate change adaptation measures for a long time. For example, the Netherlands has a low and flat terrain, with only about 50% of its land area located more than 1 meter above sea level. Therefore, this country has built a total of about 3,500 land reclamation works, and cities are built along canals. Notably, these works are carefully calculated by Dutch engineers in terms of adaptation and resistance to tides and floods.

Many African countries are also implementing plans to adapt to climate change, but the scale is still low due to lack of finance.

Developing nations have long called on rich nations to take responsibility for their massive emissions through the newly established Loss and Damage Fund, which will be used to help countries hit hard by extreme weather events adapt to them.

Hoai Phuong (according to DW)