Vietnam's rubber export volume by month in the period 2022 - 2024.

Since the beginning of July, rubber prices in the market have been on a downward trend. The reason is due to concerns about the absorption capacity of the Chinese market decreasing when the EU imposes a 37.6% tax on electric vehicles imported from this country from July 5, 2024. According to a report by the Import-Export Department.

Accordingly, at the Osaka Exchange (OSE) Japan, from the beginning of July 2024 until now, RSS3 rubber prices have continuously decreased.

On July 9, 2024, the price of RSS3 rubber for near-term delivery was trading at 324 yen/kg (equivalent to 2.01 USD/kg), down 6.1% compared to the end of June 2024, but up 62.2% compared to the same period in 2023. Japanese rubber futures fell to their lowest level in nearly 8 weeks due to a stronger yen and lower Thai rubber prices.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), on July 9, 2024, the near-term RSS3 rubber futures price traded at 14,430 yuan/ton (equivalent to 1.98 USD/kg), down 2.3% from the end of June 2024, but up 18.2% from the same period in 2023.

In Thailand, on July 8, 2024, the offered price of RSS3 rubber was 69 Baht/kg (equivalent to 2.35 USD/kg), down 9.3% compared to the end of June 2024, but up 32.7% compared to the same period in 2023.

The domestic rubber market is also affected by the EU's tax on Chinese electric vehicles, which has caused prices of this commodity to decrease.

According to the Import-Export Department, from the beginning of July 2024 until now, the price of raw rubber latex in some provinces and cities has tended to decrease sharply compared to the end of last month. At some rubber companies, the purchase price of raw rubber latex is currently maintained at around 345-390 VND/TSC, down about 5-15 VND/TSC compared to the end of last month.

In particular, Phu Rieng Rubber Company quoted the purchase price at 345-390 VND/TSC, down 5-15 VND/TSC compared to the end of last month; Ba Ria Rubber Company quoted the purchase price at 380-390 VND/TSC; Mang Yang Rubber Company quoted the purchase price at 373-378 VND/TSC, down 8-9 VND/TSC compared to the end of June 2024.

The reason pointed out by the Ministry of Industry and Trade is the concern that the absorption capacity of the Chinese market will decrease when the EU has imposed a 37.6% tax on electric vehicles imported from this country.

In addition, experts predict that the higher temporary tariffs will reduce China's electric vehicle imports by 42% and that electric vehicle prices could increase by an average of 0.3-0.9% in the EU. Therefore, once China's electric vehicle exports are affected, the world's second-largest economy's demand for rubber imports to produce tires will also decrease accordingly.

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, in June 2024, Vietnam's rubber exports reached 153.48 thousand tons, worth 246.95 million USD, up 81.7% in volume and 83.4% in value compared to May 2024;

Compared to June 2023, it still decreased by 15.1% in volume, but increased by 3.1% in value. This is the third consecutive month that rubber export volume has decreased compared to the same period in 2023.

In the first 6 months of 2024, rubber exports reached 726.65 thousand tons, worth over 1.1 billion USD, down 5.2% in volume, but up 5.5% in value over the same period in 2023.

In June 2024, China remained Vietnam's largest rubber export market, accounting for 70.82% of the country's total rubber exports, reaching 108.7 thousand tons, worth 170.15 million USD, up 115.2% in volume and 123.8% in value compared to May 2024.

In the first 6 months of 2024, Vietnam exported 489,37 thousand tons of rubber to China, worth 717.9 million USD, down 16% in volume and 8% in value compared to the same period in 2023.

Vietnam's natural rubber exports in 2023 will reach more than 2.1 million tons, worth 2.9 billion USD, down 0.1% in volume and 12.8% in value compared to 2022 due to a 12.7% decrease in average export price.

Last year, China continued to be the leading market with natural rubber exports reaching more than 1.7 million tons (up 6.6%), worth nearly 2.3 billion USD (down 4.8%). India was the second largest export market in 2023 with exports reaching 112.7 thousand tons, worth nearly 157 million USD, down 4.4% in volume and 21.7% in value compared to 2022.