World coffee prices have slightly adjusted, with low fluctuations. Robusta coffee futures for nearest delivery reversed to increase due to concerns about supply shortages, while the January 2024 delivery date continued to decrease.

The ICE-London inventory report surged earlier this week, ending a nearly three-month decline that had dragged robusta prices lower. However, that situation did not last long after the inventory report for the day soon dropped again, causing robusta prices to rebound. The inventory report on September 5 showed a further decrease of 620 tons, or 1.77% compared to the previous day, to stand at 34,370 tons, continuing to raise concerns about supply shortages.

As of September 5, Arabica standard inventory was 28,075 tons, down more than 1,000 tons compared to the end of August 2023.

The reason for the continued recovery of the two exchanges is low inventory in London and heavy rain in Brazil. Arabica increased due to excessive rain in the main coffee growing regions in southeastern Brazil, hindering the harvest of the crop in the final stage.

Domestic coffee prices today, September 7, increased by 100 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: YouTube)

At the end of the trading session on September 6 on the international futures exchange, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for November 2023 delivery increased by 3 USD, trading at 2,456 USD/ton. The January 2024 delivery period decreased by 7 USD, trading at 2,360 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange for December 2023 delivery increased by 0.35 cents, trading at 153.8 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2024 delivery increased by 0.45 cents, trading at 154.8 cents/lb. Average trading volume.

Rabobank's outlook for the upcoming market shows that the supply-demand balance is expected to be balanced next season due to lower demand in consuming countries, while production is also forecast to decrease in Vietnam (29 million bags) and Colombia (12.6 million bags).

Concerns about supply shortages continue to haunt the market. News that Brazil exported a total of 3.29 million bags of all kinds of coffee in August, including 700,000 bags of Conilon robusta, has not helped the market ease supply concerns, as the El Nino weather phenomenon is forecast to appear later this year and cause partial drought in major coffee-producing countries around the Pacific Rim.

In 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports are forecast to reach a new record of 4.2 billion USD. The Vietnamese coffee industry is targeting an export turnover of 6 billion USD by 2030. Besides advantages, this item also faces difficulties when domestic supply decreases. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that Vietnam's coffee output in the 2022-2023 crop year decreased by 6% compared to the previous crop year, down to 29.7 million bags (60kg/bag). This is the lowest output in the past 4 years, due to higher production costs (labor, fertilizer), farmers tend to switch to more profitable crops.

Indonesia is forecast to have completed the harvest of the current coffee crop year, from April 2023 to March 2024, with an estimated output of 10.3 million bags, lower than the average output of the last 3 years of 11.8 million bags, not as severe a crop failure as some forecasts made at the beginning of the harvest.