New unknowns for gold prices from US gold bullion tax move

The world gold price returned to near the $3,400/ounce mark at the end of the week, thereby maintaining its highest price in two weeks. Not only the spot gold price, the COMEX gold futures contract for December 2025 delivery at one point jumped above $3,500/ounce during the session, before closing the week at $3,458.2/ounce, the highest level in the past year.

The sudden development stems from the news that the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has decided to classify 1kg and 100-ounce gold bars as taxable goods. This decision is in stark contrast to the gold industry’s previous expectation that 1kg and 100-ounce bars would be tax-free. Currently, 1kg gold bars are the most popular type of trading on the Comex, the world’s largest gold futures market.

According to the Financial Times, this decision is expected to have a serious impact on Switzerland, the world's largest gold refining center and also the main gold exporter to the US. According to Mr. Christoph Wild, President of the Swiss Association of Precious Metals Producers and Traders, the new tax is "another blow" to the gold trade between the two countries, while also making it more difficult to meet the demand for gold in the US.

Gold futures for December 2025 delivery hit a one-year high after the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) ruled that 1kg and 100-ounce gold bars are subject to import duties.

Previously, the upward trend of gold prices was also supported by a series of factors such as trade tensions, the risk of new tariffs and expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. According to the FedWatch Tool, investors bet heavily on the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September with the rate last week being around 80%. After a series of weak economic data on employment and a decline in the ISM services PMI, recently, data just released by the M Department of Labor showed that the number of workers receiving unemployment benefits through the form of "continuing claims" jumped to 1.97 million at the end of July, compared to 1.85 million at the beginning of January 2025. The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits for at least 1 week has increased to the highest level since November 2021.

In addition, President Donald Trump continued to attract attention when he announced that he would nominate White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to fill the vacant position on the Fed Board of Governors to complete the remaining term of the Governor. The US President had many compliments for the newly nominated personnel. During that time, the US will continue to search for an official replacement after Ms. Kugler's remaining term ends.

Before the world gold price surge on Friday, domestic gold also increased sharply at the end of the week. Closing the first week of August 2025, the price of SJC gold bars was listed at VND123.20 million/tael (buy) and VND124.40 million/tael (sell), an increase of more than VND1.7 million/tael compared to mid-week and nearly VND2 million/tael higher than the end of last week.

Meanwhile, the exchange rate had a relatively calm week when banks listed selling prices around the new exchange rate level (26,400 VND/USD). Currently, the central exchange rate is listed around 25,228 VND/USD, equivalent to the ceiling exchange rate of 26,489 VND/USD. Pressure on the exchange rate eased somewhat thanks to the US Dollar Index (DXY) going down and closing the weekend at 98.2 points.

Next week, investors are expected to focus on the trade deadline between the US and China and inflation data from the world's No. 1 economy. The trade tension story may receive new information as the August 12 deadline for the US-China negotiation process approaches. If no agreement is reached, the US may impose tariffs of more than 100% on many products. Investors are also waiting for the scheduled meeting between President Trump and President Putin to find a solution to the conflict in Ukraine.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/an-so-moi-voi-gia-vang-tu-dong-thai-ap-thue-len-vang-thoi-cua-my-d354742.html