Event creates variable

It all depends on the new government in Bangladesh after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and moved to India.

In the short term, a caretaker civilian government is likely to be formed for the transition period. Ms Hasina’s faction is unlikely to continue in power despite winning the last four parliamentary elections. The two possible scenarios are a new general election with the opposition around the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which has a good chance of becoming the ruling party, or the military taking power again.

In both scenarios, the potential risks for India are high. During her years in power in Bangladesh, Hasina has tried to balance Bangladesh between China and India; but in reality, she has been close and attached to India. The new Bangladeshi government will not be hostile or cold towards India, but it will certainly be friendlier and more attached to China and Pakistan than under Hasina.

As a result, China and Pakistan will have new and more prominent advantages over India in terms of influence, role and status in Bangladesh as well as in the South Asian region. Both will take advantage of these new advantages and advantages to handle issues in their bilateral relations with India. The new unexpected incident in Bangladesh has not only turned the country into a different direction but also created a new variable in the situation in the South Asian region.