Accordingly, these three important indicators were presented by Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn last year, at the Vietnam Real Estate Conference - VRES 2022. With the positive developments of the indicators, it is forecasted that the real estate market will start to improve by the end of 2023 and the "reversal point" will fall in the second to fourth quarter of 2024.

This assessment is based on the analysis of lessons from the 2008-2012 real estate crisis combined with data and in-depth research by Batdongsan.com.vn on the market situation in each period.

And recently, experts from Batdongsan.comvn also said that the three basic indicators of the real estate market have been consistent with the trends that this unit has predicted.

Firstly, regarding bank interest rates, Batdongsan.com.vn analyzed that during the previous crisis period, it took 1.5 years from the time the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) lowered the interest rate ceiling until the real estate market began to reverse.

If in the period 2008-2012, the market took 4 years to show signs of adjusting bank interest rates, in this period, from the first quarter of 2023, the State Bank has made 2 adjustments to reduce operating interest rates, followed by reductions in many types of interest rates.

The second is about credit growth. Looking back at the story of 2012, credit growth fell from 20% to 7%, while inflation rose to 8%. In 2013, credit growth increased to 12% and inflation was 6%.

Right in the year of credit easing, the real estate market immediately showed signs of reversal. In the current market context, from the beginning of 2023, the State Bank has oriented credit growth for the whole year of 2023 at 14-15%, compared to 14% in 2022, this is a positive signal.

Third is about real estate policy. In 2008, real estate market liquidity plummeted, but it was not until 2013 that there were policies to support the market such as the 30,000 billion VND support package and the promulgation of the revised Land Law.

In 2022, the market will repeat the sluggish trend when credit is tightened, interest rates increase, and liquidity decreases. However, since the end of 2022, the Government has continuously implemented measures to remove difficulties for the real estate market such as the 120,000 billion VND support package, Decree 08 helps relieve the pressure of bond payments for businesses, Resolution 33 contributes to unclogging the real estate market, Decree 35 allows the Provincial People's Committee to regulate the areas that can be divided into plots for sale,...

Based on the analysis of the above indicators, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh still maintains his opinion: "The real estate market will likely recover around the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2024".