Mr. Nguyen Van Tao in Dak Mil (Dak Nong) boasted to VietNamNet reporter on the morning of November 26: "The price of green coffee has exceeded 120,000 VND/kg but I have not sold yet."

Mr. Tao’s family has 6 hectares of coffee, with an estimated yield of 27 tons of beans this crop. For over a week now, he and his workers have been out on the farm selecting ripe coffee trees to harvest first to ensure the quality of the beans. Around mid-December, when the coffee is fully ripe, he will start harvesting en masse.

However, instead of selling fresh fruit or dried coffee beans like previous years, this season he continues to keep the goods and wait for a good price before selling them. Because the family's living expenses for the past two years have always been abundant, there is no fear of shortage.

“My family has durian intercropped, recently earning more than 1 billion VND. Pepper prices are also high this year, after harvesting I have a few hundred million VND in my pocket. Therefore, I am keeping the coffee harvested this season, not in a hurry to sell it,” he shared.

Last year, Mr. Tao also “held back” his coffee crop, until the price skyrocketed to 128,000 VND/kg before selling it. As a result, he made a huge profit of billions.

According to him, farmers in the Central Highlands have been doing well in the past two years thanks to good prices for coffee, pepper, durian, etc. “People are buying cars and driving all over the streets, racing to build new houses. I get invited to housewarming parties all the time,” he added.

This is also the reason why many people are not in a hurry to sell their coffee at this time, nor do they consign their goods to agents like before. Instead, they keep their coffee in their own warehouses waiting for higher prices.

Speaking to VietNamNet reporter , Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), admitted that the price of green coffee beans increased to 125,000 VND/kg. With this price, farmers earn about 85,000 VND/kg but they still keep the goods.

This situation has made the coffee supply, which was not abundant, even more scarce even though it is the beginning of the new harvest season. Therefore, domestic and world coffee prices have been pushed up even higher.

In the world market, coffee prices have increased sharply, especially since November 22. According to Mr. Hai, there are many reasons that have pushed coffee prices to reach historical peaks in recent days.

For example, the world's largest coffee supplier, Brazil, finished harvesting last July, but output fell sharply compared to initial predictions.

Similarly, in Vietnam, coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is predicted to decline significantly. In addition, erratic weather causes our country’s coffee to ripen late, affecting current export output.

In fact, in the first 15 days of November 2024, our country exported only 20,933 tons of coffee, worth over 122 million USD. Accordingly, the output decreased by 44.8% compared to the same period last year, but the value increased by 1.8%.

Currently, the price balance between supply and demand is greatly imbalanced. Buyers are waiting for prices to fall while sellers are waiting for prices to rise. The two sides have not yet found a common price to conduct a transaction, so many transactions have stalled. Many traders are even “holding back” their goods, waiting for coffee prices to rise before releasing them to the market. International buyers still have stocks in reserve, so they are not in a hurry to close orders, the VICOFA chairman emphasized.

In the world market, in the most recent trading session, Arabica coffee prices increased to 6,660 USD/ton, setting a new peak in 13 and a half years. Robusta coffee prices also jumped to 5,110 USD/ton for delivery in January 2025.

This is the third consecutive week of price increases for both commodities.

Recently, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) branch in Brazil has lowered its forecast for the country's 2024-2025 coffee production to 66.4 million 60kg bags, down 3.5 million bags. The main reason is the decline in Arabica coffee production due to harsh weather.

Brazil's coffee exports in 2024-25 are also forecast to fall 5% from the previous forecast, to 44.25 million bags, 2.5 million bags lower than the previous crop year.

According to I&M Smith, global coffee production for the October 2024-September 2025 crop year is forecast to reach around 169.5 million bags, while demand is around 171.5 million bags. With this forecast, coffee supply and demand are likely to be in a slight deficit in the 2024-2025 crop year, depending on weather fluctuations.

Preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs show that as of November 15, Vietnam had exported over 1.17 million tons of coffee, earning nearly 4.7 billion USD - a historic record high.

Vietnam’s coffee exports will recover in the final months of this year as the new 2024-2025 crop season has begun and demand at the end of the year has increased. However, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai said that the coffee price trend in the coming days is still very difficult to predict.

Vietnamese coffee has had an unprecedentedly successful export season, with many historical records set. This strength of our country is awaiting a historic decision from the EU market worth nearly 48 billion USD.