According to Reuters, US and South Korean officials said there were no signs that North Korea was about to take military action, even though Pyongyang was escalating its confrontation with the US.
and allies.

Overhyped

Earlier this month, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un “made a strategic decision to go to war,” much like North Korean leader Kim Il-sung did in 1950, with the United States distracted by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, some experts said. But officials in Washington and Seoul “did not sense” a war was imminent.

“While we do not see any indication of a direct military threat at this time, we continue to monitor the potential for North Korean military action against South Korea and Japan,” a US official said on condition of anonymity.

Meanwhile, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik has dismissed as “exaggerated” claims by some American experts that the possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula is now at its highest since the Korean War (1950-1953). Technically, the two Koreas are still at war. According to Minister Shin Won-sik, the experts’ comments only benefit North Korea’s psychological warfare. A spokesman for the Japanese Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the possibility that North Korea is planning military action, only stating that Tokyo is closely monitoring Pyongyang’s statements and actions.

Sydney Seiler, who worked at the US National Intelligence Council, said that North Korea is not ready for war. In addition, Donald Trump, a potential Republican candidate in this year's White House race, threatened to withdraw US troops from South Korea while still President and had a rather moderate attitude towards Kim Jong-un.

Increase pressure

Although the threat assessment has been exaggerated, some officials and analysts agree that North Korea is likely to continue, or even increase, its provocations after it made progress in developing ballistic missiles and abandoned its decades-old goal of unification with South Korea.

Minister Shin Won-sik said that North Korea may increase pressure around the time of the South Korean National Assembly elections in April and the US presidential election in November. Ahead of these two political events, Pyongyang may try to facilitate its strategic goals with high-intensity provocations such as launching spy satellites, intercontinental missiles or nuclear tests.

The latest moves and statements by parties involved in the Korean peninsula followed a “controversial” report published on the 38 North page of the Stimson Center (USA) by former US intelligence analyst Robert Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker.

According to the two experts, North Korea believes that the current global trend creates favorable conditions for a possible military solution to the Korean Peninsula issue. The two experts argue that North Korea has fundamentally changed its strategic thinking, abandoning its ultimate goal of improving relations with the United States after the failed Kim-Trump summit. Now, Pyongyang focuses on cooperation with China and Russia, and strengthens its tougher stance toward South Korea.

PEARL