According to the gasoline price forecast model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI), in the management session this afternoon, February 20, gasoline prices may increase by 0.6 - 2.2% if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the price stabilization fund.

Specifically, VPI forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON92 gasoline may increase by VND453 (2.2%) to VND21,043/liter, while RON95 gasoline may only increase slightly by 0.6% to VND21,196/liter.

VPI also forecasts that retail oil prices this period will tend to decrease, in which diesel may decrease by 0.4% to 18,994 VND/liter, kerosene may decrease by 0.5% to 19,373 VND/liter, and fuel oil may decrease by 1.5% to 17,503 VND/kg.

According to VPI, the joint Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the gasoline price stabilization fund this time.

In the operating period on February 13, E5 RON92 gasoline increased by 156 VND/liter, not higher than 20,598 VND/liter. RON95 gasoline price increased by 146 VND/liter, not higher than 21,074 VND/liter.

Diesel price increased by 19 VND/liter, not higher than 19,073 VND/liter. Kerosene increased by 59 VND/liter, not higher than 19,473 VND/liter and fuel oil increased by 425 VND/kg, not higher than 17,779 VND/kg.

On the world market, at 6:00 a.m. on February 20, the price of WTI oil increased by 0.07 USD, equivalent to 0.1%, to 72.18 USD/barrel. The price of US Brent oil increased by 0.2 USD, equivalent to 0.26%, to 76.04 USD/barrel.

Oil prices rose as the market tried to make a decision based on three price drivers: Russia, Iran and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). According to Reuters , about a third of capacity (380,000 barrels per day) at Russia's Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station has not been restored after being attacked by drones. Meanwhile, in the US, cold weather is threatening oil supplies. The North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimated that production in the state will fall by up to 150,000 barrels per day.

There is also speculation that OPEC and its allies such as Russia and Kazakhstan may decide to postpone plans to increase supply in April, said market analyst Tony Sycamore of IG. Regardless of the likelihood of a US-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, any easing of sanctions on Russia is unlikely to result in a significant increase in oil flows, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.