Coffee prices on May 13, 2024 in the domestic and world markets are forecast to continue to increase because the international market is concerned that the severe drought in the Central Highlands will cause a decline in Vietnam's Robusta coffee output (the world's largest Robusta coffee producer).

At the same time, the impact of climate change and the El Nino phenomenon has caused drought across coffee growing regions around the world. In Vietnam alone, the 2023-2024 crop could drop by 20% to 1.47 million tons, the lowest level in 4 years, due to drought. This information has pushed Robusta coffee prices in the domestic market in Vietnam to an unprecedented spike in just a few days.

In addition, military conflicts around the world and tensions in the Red Sea have increased shipping costs and many other costs, pushing up coffee prices. Many financial speculators around the world have chosen coffee (after oil and gold) to speculate, which has also caused coffee prices to skyrocket.

Previously, domestic coffee prices on May 12, 2024 increased slightly with the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces being VND 99,300/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong and Dak Lak provinces being VND 99,500/kg. Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai and Kon Tum provinces was VND 99,000/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at the highest price of VND 99,000/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 98,500 VND/kg. The price of coffee in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 99,500 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 99,600 VND/kg.

World coffee prices at 8:40 p.m. on May 12, Vietnam time on the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices fluctuated at 3,195 - 3,440 USD/ton. Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contracts for delivery in July 2024 on the London exchange was at 3,440 USD/ton, up 0.03%, equivalent to an increase of 1 USD/ton compared to the opening time. The September 2024 delivery term was 3,362 USD/ton; the November 2024 delivery term was 3,288 USD/ton and the January 2025 delivery term was 3,195 USD/ton.

Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor on the evening of May 12 also decreased in previous terms and increased in later terms. Specifically, the delivery term for July 2024 was 201.15 cents/lb; down 0.15%, equivalent to a decrease of 0.30 US cents/lb compared to the end of the previous session. The delivery term for September 2024 was 199.95 cents/lb; the delivery term for December 2024 was 198.80 cents/lb and the delivery term for March 2025 was 198.20 cents/lb.

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee on the evening of May 12, 2024 also increased or decreased depending on the trading period, ranging from 239.05 - 246.90 USD/ton. Specifically, the delivery period in May 2024 is 246.90 USD/ton, up 0.39% or 0.95 USD. The delivery period in July 2024 is 250.60 USD/ton; the delivery period in September 2024 is 243.20 USD/ton and the delivery period in December 2024 is 239.05 USD/ton.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, it will be open from 19:00 - 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.