As Wagner fighters and supporters on October 1 marked the 40th anniversary of the death of tycoon Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Orthodox Christian milestone when the soul of the deceased begins its final journey to eternity, two members of the late Russian tycoon’s family brought flowers to his grave in St. Petersburg.

First is Violetta, Yevgeny Prigozhin's 84-year-old mother, who has announced that she has cut all financial ties with her son to avoid Western sanctions. The other face is Pavel Yevgenyevich Prigozhin, the "only son" of the family and the focus of speculation about inheriting the entire tycoon's business, including the Wagner military organization.

"All my present property and all that will belong to me in the future, I will leave to Pavel Yevgenyevich Prigozhin," Yevgeny Prigozhin wrote in a will apparently drawn up in March, whose images were circulated by pro-Wagner Telegram accounts last week.

The will emerged shortly after the Kremlin released images of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Andrey Troshev, a former Russian police colonel and founding member of Wagner known as "Silver Hair".

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), headquartered in Washington, DC, and the British military intelligence agency assessed on September 29 that Troshev had completed the takeover of the leadership of the armed group left by Prigozhin. However, a report on October 1 also from the ISW noted that Wagner was not unanimous in supporting Troshev. Instead, some top members wanted to make Prigozhin's son the new leader.

Pavel Prigozhin's leadership and personality are a big mystery because the son of the late Russian tycoon keeps his personal life private and does not attract much media attention. Information about Pavel Prigozhin mainly appears in the sanctions files released by Western governments or press investigations targeting the tycoon's business empire.

Pavel Prigozhin is believed to be between 25 and 27 years old, with two sources listing his birth year as 1996 or 1998. His son has been hit with sanctions from at least nine countries and organizations, including the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union (EU), Canada, Switzerland, Japan, New Zealand, Australia and Ukraine. Pavel, along with his mother Lyubov and sister Polina, “played multiple roles in Prigozhin’s business empire” and benefited from his “reputation as a tycoon among the Russian elite,” according to a 2022 Financial Times investigation.

The US Treasury Department in March noted that Pavel directly and indirectly controlled several companies and real estate in St. Petersburg. Notable among them were Lakhta Plaza, Lakhta Park, and Lakhta Park Premium. These three companies are said to be linked to the Prigozhin-backed Internet Research Agency (IRA), whose main task is to conduct social media campaigns oriented towards Russia’s geopolitical interests.

Lakhta Plaza was also added to the US sanctions list in March, sharing the same phone number and auditor as several companies and organizations seen as fronts for Wagner.

According to the local newspaper Bumaga, Pavel owns a business center on the Sinopskaya riverbank in the central district of St. Petersburg. He owns several properties in a complex of 49 luxury villas near Lake Lakhta, built by Mr. Prigozhin's Concord company with an estimated total area of ​​17,000 square meters.

The total value of the oligarch’s assets left to his son remains unknown. According to images of Prigozhin’s alleged will that circulated last week, Pavel is likely to inherit a three-story mansion in St. Petersburg, about nine companies, and shares in his father’s Concord Group.

Pro-Wagner accounts suggest that Pavel will inherit around $120 million, but a 2022 Financial Times investigation estimated Prigozhin's fortune to be worth more than 14.6 billion rubles (over $140 million).

The Anti-Corruption Foundation, founded by opposition politician Alexei Navalny, once estimated that Wagner's business empire was worth 2 trillion rubles (about $19 billion) if underground activities were included, while local news site Agentstvo estimated Prigozhin's total assets at $800 million.

Not only is Pavel Prigozhin closely involved in his father's business, he is also said to have combat experience.

In September 2022, Prigozhin told the Concord news periodical that Pavel had done his military service when he turned 18. A month after completing his service, Pavel joined Wagner and immediately went to the Syrian battlefield.

"My son was constantly present at many conflict hotspots where Wagner was involved and was even awarded the Black Cross," said Mr Prigozhin, referring to the private military company's internal award for members who demonstrate bravery on the battlefield.

Yevgeny Prigozhin's loyalists have advocated for his son to take over as top commander to carry out the tycoon's dying wish. Some pro-Wagner Telegram accounts have said that Pavel may have initiated negotiations with Viktor Zolotov, the head of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia), to bring Wagner into the organization.

Rosgvardia reports directly to the Russian Presidential Administration rather than the Defense Ministry. This scenario would allow Wagner to avoid signing a professional military contract and continue to operate independently of the military, in line with Prigozhin’s intentions before his death. Wagner would nevertheless continue to be partly dependent on the Russian Defense Ministry for supplies of heavy weapons and ammunition.

This model has long been applied in Chechnya, a republic under the Russian Federation. In November 2022, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) of the UK assessed that the Chechen militia "technically belongs to Rosgvardia", but in essence is the military force of Chechnya leader Ramzan Kadyrov with full command and organization.

Maksim Shugalei, a former political adviser to Yevgeny Prigozhin, said Pavel had both the responsibility and the potential to become Wagner's new leader. He also assessed that Wagner was unlikely to be fully controlled by the Russian government, either directly by the Defense Ministry or indirectly through government appointees.

"Wagner is not just an empire of money. It is a religion," Shugalei explained.

Thanh Danh (According to Kyiv Post, Telegraph, Financial Times, News.ru )