VN-Index is forecast to reach 1,610 points, warning of 'tight' margin situation in many stocks

VN-Index may continue to move up to the 1,610 point zone.

* Mr. Duc Vu, Deputy Director of Vietcap Securities Analysis Department:

- VN-Index last week had many fluctuations and shakes, in which session 5-8 recorded record high liquidity.

Despite the continuous tug-of-war, buying power eventually prevailed, helping the index increase 6% for the entire week and set a new historical peak at 1,584.95 points.

In the last session of the week, the VN30 group of stocks showed signs of slowing down, while cash flow shifted to the mid- and small-cap group, especially stocks that had not increased strongly in the previous period such as oil and gas and telecommunications. Foreign investors were net sellers on all three exchanges, but this pressure was not enough to overwhelm domestic demand.

The oil and gas group became the leading focus thanks to the recovery of crude oil prices and positive second-quarter business results. Real estate also attracted strong cash flow.

In addition, the sector rotation trend is taking place rapidly: real estate and energy maintain positive developments, while finance and materials fluctuate in opposite directions. The index holding steady in the 1,580 - 1,585 point range has reinforced the short-term uptrend.

It is forecasted that next week, VN-Index may continue to move up to the 1,610 point area. However, small fluctuations in the index may still appear along with the consolidation of stocks that have increased strongly in the previous period.

The codes that have increased strongly before, the loan limit is starting to run out.

* Mr. Phan Tan Nhat - Head of Analysis at Saigon - Hanoi Securities (SHS):

- The market is bustling with cash flow circulating in the context of "the tide rises, the boat rises" when VN-Index followed VN30 to surpass the historical peak. However, the market began to differentiate strongly. Part of the reason may be due to the phenomenon of tight lending margin room.

The codes that increased strongly before, started to have a situation of running out of loan limits, not attracting more increased cash flow, had weaker price movements.

While the codes have not increased much, they have attracted increased cash flow and had positive price movements when business results grew well.

This is a development that short-term speculative positions need to pay attention to in the current context, to control short-term positions, as well as rotate cash flow reasonably, when the uptrend of VN-Index is still maintained.

Investors maintain a reasonable proportion. Investment targets are stocks with good fundamentals, leading in strategic industries, and outstanding growth.

Strategy for investors

* Ms. Nguyen Phuong Nga - analyst at Vietcombank Securities (VCBS):

- VN-Index closed the last session of the week with a Hammer candle (a candlestick on the price chart that shows that buyers have tried to pull the price up after being sold heavily). This shows an effort to consolidate momentum in the 1570 - 1590 range.

On the daily chart, the MACD indicator (a technical analysis tool used to determine price trends and momentum) is pointing up, the RSI indicator (measuring the strength of a trend) is moving sideways, showing that the VN-Index is still in an upward trend, but it will be difficult to avoid fluctuations in new score areas.

With the current situation, we recommend that investors should realize partial profits for stocks with strong supply at high points; at the same time, select stocks that are entering an uptrend from a long accumulation zone, or stocks with successful support testing signals after a correction to open positions when VN-Index fluctuates next week.