The mayor of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, Vitaly Barabash, said on February 8 that a Russian force was stepping up its attack from multiple directions to gain control of the city, according to AFP.

"Unfortunately, the enemy is pressing from all directions, there is not a single area of ​​our city that is quiet. Indeed, Russia is attacking with great force," Mayor Barabash told Ukrainian media.

The Ukraine Fights Telegram channel warned on February 4 that "the situation in the city [Avdiivka] has become critical," asserting that Russian assault groups had entered the city from the northeast and that Russian soldiers had overtaken Ukrainian combat formations and gained a foothold in several buildings, according to Newsweek on February 6.

"This means that the Russians are now just a few hundred meters away from the main logistical artery of the Ukrainian defense forces. The fate of Avdiivka is being decided," Ukraine Fights wrote.

In October 2023, Russia launched an attack on Avdiivka, which is seen as the gateway to the nearby Russian-controlled city of Donetsk and a pillar in its goal of gaining control of the entire Donbass region of southeastern Ukraine.

The Russian side has suffered heavy losses in troops and equipment in the campaign to capture Avdiivka, but Ukrainian Telegram channels have offered pessimistic assessments of the ability of Ukrainian forces to hold the city, according to Newsweek .

In addition, the Telegram channel Butusov Plus confirmed that street battles have taken place in the northern suburb of Avdiivka, where Russian units are less than 1.6 km from the city gates. The Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade and its subordinate units are fighting with a larger and constantly reinforced Russian force .

Also on February 4, The Wall Street Journal reporter Yaroslav Trofimov wrote on the social network X that Avdiivka "is increasingly at risk of becoming the first Ukrainian city to fall since the loss of Bakhmut in May 2023." Mr. Trofimov said that the severe shortage of ammunition in Ukraine was due to the US Congress's refusal to provide additional military aid to Kyiv.

Čedomir Nestorović, professor of geopolitics and Islamic business at ESSEC Business School in Singapore, said the decline in financial aid, ammunition and weapons to Kyiv, as well as Ukraine's problems in mobilizing more troops, meant "there was a big risk that Avdiivka would fall soon".

Professor Nestorović notes that President Volodymyr Zelensky wants to keep Avdiivka “at all costs”, unlike Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhny. Therefore, if Avdiivka falls, General Zaluzhny will have an advantage in the power struggle.

Leon Hartwell, an expert at the LSE IDEAS consultancy of the London School of Economics (UK), commented that Russia's gaining control of Avdiivka could strengthen the views of skeptical Westerners who are supporting a reduction in military and financial support for Ukraine.

"The loss of Avdiivka will limit Ukraine's ability to launch counteroffensive operations against Russia in Donbass, and retaking the city, which has a strong defense system, will pose a particularly difficult task," he told Newsweek .

“Russia has invested heavily in capturing Avdiivka, deploying large numbers of troops and military equipment to the city,” Hartwel added. “The capture of Avdiivka is of significant political importance to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin… to demonstrate Russia’s victories ahead of the presidential election, and there is a possibility of a new troop mobilization.”

There is no information yet on the reaction of Kyiv or Moscow to the above comments.