World coffee prices all turned down in the closing session this week, while USDX recovered slightly, funds and speculators rushed to liquidate net positions to minimize risks because technical indicators showed that they had entered the overbought zone before and the New York floor will be closed for a national holiday on the first day of next week.

Meanwhile, Arabica coffee traders are not in a hurry to bring their goods to the floor to register for Certification because they are waiting for prices to decrease further with increasing selling pressure from the new crop being harvested in Brazil.

Meanwhile, the price of robusta coffee yesterday, June 16, set a new 15-year high when it touched the mark of 2,854 USD/ton due to technical buying orders from funds and speculators due to concerns about the supply remaining tight and supported by the ICE - London inventory report that decreased by 2,330 tons, or 2.97% compared to a week earlier, to register at 76,240 tons, a very significant decrease in the past week.

Domestic coffee prices today, June 17, decreased by 100-200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: YouTube)

ICE London benchmark inventories fell by 170 tonnes, or 0.22%, from a week earlier to 78,400 tonnes (about 1,306,667 60-kg bags), a seven-week low as of June 15. This suggests that Robusta supplies remain tight in the short to medium term, supporting Robusta prices.

Inventories on the ICE New York floor fell to their lowest level in more than 6.5 months to 546,325 bags, as of June 15. This information contributed to supporting the increase in Arabica coffee prices.

At the end of the trading session on June 16, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange turned down slightly. The price of robusta coffee futures for July 2023 delivery decreased by 8 USD, trading at 2,796 USD/ton. The price of September delivery decreased by 10 USD, trading at 2,747 USD/ton. Average trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased. The July 2023 delivery contract decreased by 2.1 cents, trading at 184.90 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the September 2023 delivery contract decreased by 2.2 cents, to 180.75 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.

On Monday, June 19, the New York market was closed all day for the Abolition Day holiday in the United States; the London market was open as usual.

Despite the pause in rate hikes, the Fed expects rates to peak at 5.6% this year, meaning there will be two more 0.25% hikes in 2023. Coffee prices on the two international exchanges have the same positive trend due to the benefit of a weaker US dollar.

According to technical analysis, technical indicators on the robusta exchange are showing signs that bullish momentum remains.

However, RSI is in the overbought zone at 72.76%, so there is a possibility of a downward correction during the session.

In the short term, Robusta coffee prices are expected to fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 2720 - 2830. Robusta may increase to test the price range of 2830 - 2850 before making a correction because it has exceeded the level. It is necessary to pay attention to the price range of 2715 - 2720. If this price range is lost, Robusta coffee may establish a downward trend again.

Technical trend analysis shows that the Arabica floor, technical indicators are showing signs of continued bullish momentum. It is expected that in the short term, Arabica coffee prices will fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 185 - 190. Arabica coffee needs to surpass 190 and close at this price to find an opportunity to conquer the old peak. On the contrary, if the 185 level is lost, a downtrend may be established.