Loans increase one and a half times more than capital mobilization, banks are preparing to increase interest rates

A recent analysis report by MBS Securities Company said that after a slight decrease in June 2025, the mobilization interest rate level tended to increase slightly again in July. For example, during the month, TPBank, VPBank , and Eximbank slightly increased mobilization interest rates from 0.1% - 0.2%/year for terms of 1 - 36 months.

This development took place in the context of strong credit growth in recent times. According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), as of July 29, outstanding credit of the entire system had increased by 9.8% compared to the end of 2024 and increased by 19.8% compared to the same period.

"We estimate that credit growth is about 1.3 - 1.5 times higher than capital mobilization growth. Therefore, this has partly put pressure on deposit interest rates in the private commercial bank group to attract deposits," said an MBS analyst.

By the end of July 2025, the average 12-month term interest rate of the private commercial bank group increased slightly by 2 basis points compared to the previous month to 4.89% (down 16 basis points compared to the beginning of the year), while the interest rate of the state-owned commercial bank group remained stable at 4.7%. Interbank VND interest rates remained high. At the end of August 8, the overnight interbank VND interest rate was traded at 6.28%.

From now until the end of the year, deposit interest rates are expected to be under pressure from high credit growth rates, especially after the State Bank's announcement of increasing credit growth targets for credit institutions to meet capital needs for the economy . However, the State Bank also continues to require credit institutions to synchronously deploy solutions to stabilize and strive to reduce deposit interest rates, contributing to stabilizing the monetary market and creating room to reduce lending interest rates.

MBS analysts believe that pressure from the SBV, along with expectations that the FED will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in the second half of 2025, will help narrow the VND-USD interest rate gap, thereby creating conditions for the SBV to maintain a low interest rate environment.

"Based on the above factors, we forecast that 12-month deposit interest rates of private commercial banks will have room to decrease slightly by 2 basis points to 4.7% by the end of 2025," MBS expects.

Last week, the central exchange rate was adjusted up and down by the State Bank of Vietnam alternately through the sessions. At the end of August 8, the central exchange rate was listed at 25,228 VND/USD, down 11 VND/USD compared to the session at the end of the previous week.

The exchange rate on the free market fluctuated little last week. At the end of the session on August 8, the free exchange rate decreased by 20 VND in the buying direction while increasing by 30 VND in the selling direction compared to the previous weekend session, trading at 26,420 VND/USD and 26,480 VND/USD.

In July 2025, the increase in interbank exchange rates slowed down due to the support of the narrowing of the VND-USD interest rate gap in the context of the overnight interbank interest rate remaining above 4% throughout July. In addition, the exchange rate was also supported by vibrant export activities with a positive trade surplus. In addition, the State Treasury also stopped offering to buy USD from commercial banks. This helped reduce pressure on foreign currency supply.

However, the exchange rate maintained its upward momentum during the month under the pressure of the recovery of the DXY index. As of the end of July 2025, the exchange rate had increased by 2.9% compared to the beginning of the year.

Although the USD is expected to continue its downward trend towards the end of the year as the Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates, experts believe that internal pressures will be the main factors contributing to the exchange rate's increase, including: The USD-VND interest rate gap will continue despite the FED cutting interest rates to 4%; Greater import demand as a 0% tax rate is applied to goods from the US. On the contrary, exports in general will slow down, leading to a narrowing trade surplus; FDI capital flows will slow down waiting for clearer information on tariffs; The difference between domestic and international gold prices in the context of rising gold prices.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/cho-vay-tang-cao-gap-ruoi-huy-dong-von-ngan-hang-ruc-rich-tang-lai-suat-d355658.html