During the 43rd ASEAN Summit (September 5-7, 2023), ASEAN issued an important document, the Declaration of ASEAN Concord IV. This is an initiative of the 2023 ASEAN Chair Indonesia, which serves as the foundation for the ASEAN Community Vision 2045, helping to strengthen ASEAN to address various challenges in the future. This is the first time ASEAN has a long-term strategic vision. Although the future faces enormous challenges, ASEAN still needs to adhere to the core spirit of "people-centered, purposeful, and dynamic" in the process of building the ASEAN Community by 2045.

The Declaration of ASEAN Concord IV is considered the main achievement of the 43rd ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, Indonesia. (Photo: Anh Son)

Efforts to plan for the future

Since its inception, the Bangkok Declaration has stated that the bloc’s main objectives are to “promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law” and “accelerate economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region through joint endeavours.” Whether ASEAN can achieve these goals depends on its awareness and ability to act. In the context of increasingly fierce competition between major powers, being prepared to deal with unexpected and unforeseen consequences will be a top priority for ASEAN leaders. ASEAN remains a “glass half full” rather than a “glass half empty,” which is the first idea that the High-Level Task Force on the ASEAN Community Vision beyond 2025 is trying to realize.

Looking back, ASEAN has come a long way in planning for the future. Before ASEAN leaders agreed to establish a task force to prepare for the 2025 vision, the bloc had the ASEAN Vision 2020, agreed in 1997 with the goal of “ASEAN as a concert of Southeast Asian nations, outward-looking, living in peace, stability and prosperity, bonded together in a dynamic partnership for development and a caring community of societies.”

Over the past 23 years, three important milestones have been achieved. In 2003, at the Bali Summit, the Bali Concord II stipulated that the ASEAN Community would be established, comprising three areas of cooperation – political and security, economic and socio-cultural. To go further, ASEAN agreed in 2007 to establish a legal and institutional framework for ASEAN. The result was the ASEAN Charter, which came into effect in December 2008. In 2015, ASEAN leaders saw the ASEAN Community as “politically cohesive, economically integrated and socially responsible” to meet the challenges and opportunities of the future. With the group’s growing international stature and influence, ASEAN’s vision for 2025 is to promote ASEAN centrality to ensure that the community remains peaceful, stable, vibrant, resilient and sustainable.

More important and resilient

The question is how ASEAN will shape itself in 2045. The High-Level Task Force on the ASEAN Community Vision beyond 2025 (HLTF-ACV) was established in 2022, with a deadline of December 2025 to develop a vision. The HLTF-ACV, comprising 20 members (two from each country), is specifically tasked with developing a post-2025 vision for the ASEAN Community.

Regarding the future content of the ASEAN Community Vision beyond 2045, the 7th meeting also discussed important trends that will influence the development of the ASEAN Community in the next 20 years. These trends include geopolitics, food security, energy crisis, digital transformation, artificial intelligence and pandemics, among others. Accordingly, the ASEAN Community Vision beyond 2025 will be extended by 10 years from 2035 to 2045. ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn launched the 20-year vision (with a mid-term review in 2035) in Bangkok in March 2023. The HLTF-ACV made the decision at its 7th meeting held in Belitung, Indonesia, from 19-20 March 2023.

This marks the first time the 56-year-old organization has taken an unusually long-term view at a critical time of global geopolitical and geo-economic turmoil. ASEAN countries have stressed that 2045 will be the new year to find ways to make ASEAN more relevant and resilient. Between now and 2025, the task force will have to find the answer to how to develop a Vision that not only ensures ASEAN’s role in the geopolitical landscape over the next 20 years, but also ensures ASEAN’s domestic and international resilience at a time when the bloc is poised to become the world’s fourth-largest economic power after China, the US, Japan or India?

The ASEAN Vision 2045 may include new intergenerational challenges that different generations will have to continuously address within the ASEAN community. (Source: ERIA)

Much to do

However, much remains to be done to ensure that the new ASEAN Community Vision 2025, which is now in force until 2045, is consistent with the shared aspirations of some 672 ASEAN citizens. A mid-term review of the first 10-year vision will be held in 2035. The task force has submitted a list of core elements of the ASEAN Community Vision 2025 to ASEAN leaders. Over the next three years, the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 will be developed and finalized. ASEAN leaders also recommended that the drafters strike a balance between pragmatism and ambition to ensure ASEAN is stable, progressive and true to its identity.

The megatrends identified by the High Level Task Force include: the knock-on effects of geopolitical changes, energy crises and food security; artificial intelligence, digital transformation and cybersecurity. In addition, the world will continue to face challenges from pandemics and natural disasters. The ASEAN Vision 2045 may include new intergenerational challenges that different generations will have to continuously address within the ASEAN community.

To stay relevant in a more polarized future, ASEAN must act together and strengthen its centrality to maintain its global leadership. So far, several key words have emerged in the draft ASEAN Vision, which will include ASEAN priorities - ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, great power competition in the Indo-Pacific, digital disruption, artificial intelligence, etc.

(to be continued)

* Institute of Southeast Asian Studies

** People's Security Academy