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India sends new signal, will rice prices increase again?

Báo Thanh niênBáo Thanh niên26/02/2024


According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), world rice prices have cooled down after a period of maintaining a high level. Of which, Vietnam's 5% broken rice has dropped the most by 19 USD to 609 USD/ton, lower than Thailand's at 611 USD/ton and Pakistan's at 612 USD/ton.

Ấn Độ phát tín hiệu mới, giá gạo liệu có tăng trở lại?- Ảnh 1.

Farmers in the Mekong Delta are harvesting winter-spring rice.

The sharpest decrease was in Vietnam's 25% broken rice, down 20 USD to 584 USD/ton, Pakistan's rice down 5 USD to 570 USD/ton and Thai rice down 3 USD to 561 USD/ton.

The decrease in export rice prices has caused a sharp decrease in the domestic market. Specifically, paddy decreased by more than 1,000 VND/kg, to an average of 7,300 - 7,500 VND/kg and 1,300 - 1,400 VND/kg of raw rice of OM and Dai Thom varieties, about 13,000 VND/kg.

In total, in just about 10 days after Tet, domestic rice prices have dropped sharply, causing many farmers to worry as the largest harvest in the Mekong Delta has just begun in the main season.

India imposes indefinite export tax on parboiled rice

Talking to Thanh Nien , some market experts commented: This price reduction is a normal reaction of the market when Vietnam enters the peak harvest season. The second reason is that recently, Indian farmers have organized many protests before the election to make demands for their rights. These are two important reasons why many rice importers have delayed signing new contracts, leading to sluggish transactions.

However, the most notable news last week was that India continued to impose export tax on parboiled rice, while purchasing 35,000 tons of 25% broken rice for export through government channels.

Specifically, on February 22, India announced the extension of the 20% export tax on parboiled rice when this policy expires at the end of March. Notably, this extension has no time limit while each year, India exports 7-8 million tons of parboiled rice. The tax extension is aimed at ensuring food security and fighting inflation before the upcoming election.

On the same day, India announced a tender for 35,000 tons of 25% broken white rice (non-basmati) for export purposes through the government channel that India committed to its partners.

It can be seen that controlling inflation and ensuring national food security are still the top priorities of the Indian government. Buying rice for export also shows that India is persistent with its export policy through government channels.

With the above data, rice prices are likely to recover soon.

Vietnam remains the market focus

Professor Bui Chi Buu, former Deputy Director of the Vietnam Academy of Agricultural Sciences, commented: Currently, although rice prices have decreased, they are still high at over VND7,000/kg. With this price, farmers can ensure a profit of over 30%. This is ideal for rice farmers. "We should not expect too much about rice prices going up to VND9,000 - 10,000/kg, because it is only temporary and local, not the real price," Mr. Buu emphasized.

India maintains rice export ban. Myanmar and Cambodia have negligible rice supplies. Thailand is suffering from severe drought. Vietnam remains the focus of the rice market.

Professor, Dr. Bui Chi Buu, former Deputy Director of Vietnam Institute of Agricultural Science and Technology

For the world market, India is likely to continue to maintain its export restriction policy this year. In addition, the continued increase in global economic and political instability is also the reason why rice and food prices in general continue to remain high. In addition, there is the impact of unfavorable weather factors on cultivation.

"India still maintains a ban on rice exports. Myanmar and Cambodia have insignificant rice supplies. Thailand is suffering from severe drought. Vietnam is still the focus of the rice market. However, we should not expect prices to increase too high because rice is an essential food item that governments want to control prices. Rice prices are also unlikely to increase when wheat prices are also cooling down," Professor Buu warned.

About 300,000 hectares of early winter-spring rice have been harvested.

On February 26, Mr. Nguyen Nhu Cuong, Director of the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) said: Up to now, we have harvested about 300,000 hectares of early winter-spring rice in coastal areas at high risk of drought and salinity. Therefore, up to this point, it can be said that we have basically succeeded in avoiding drought and salinity to ensure production and take advantage of market opportunities. Currently, although rice prices have decreased according to market rules, they are still high and ensure profits for rice farmers.



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